Adabra World Model
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Research and sources
Research behind the digital self
NVIDIA research
An agent can coordinate models and tools to do more: ToolOrchestra improved tested reasoning and tool-use performance while reducing cost versus its GPT-5 baseline
Paper ToolOrchestra: Elevating Intelligence via Efficient Model and Tool Orchestration
Status Peer-reviewed, 2026
Results HLE 37.1 vs 35.1; FRAMES 76.3 vs 74.0; τ²-Bench 80.2 vs 77.7, against the tested GPT-5 configuration
Scope Benchmarks; not better than every baselinePark et al. · arXiv preprint 2411.10109 (v3, June 2026)
Google DeepMind and Stanford University, with co-authors from Northwestern, the University of Washington and Sciences Po
Personal context improves simulations of individual responses: agents grounded in interviews and surveys reached 86% of participants’ own two-week retest consistency on held-out General Social Survey questions
Paper LLM Agents Grounded in Self-Reports Enable General-Purpose Simulation of Individuals
Status Preprint, 2026
Sample 1,052 U.S. adults
Scope Normalized accuracy on held-out survey answers; not 86% of a whole personZhang et al. · Findings of ACL · 2026
Amazon-affiliated researchers, with university co-authors
Personal memory makes AI responses more individual: PersonaAgent combines remembered experiences and a changing persona to improve personalized predictions
Paper PersonaAgent: Bridging Memory and Action for Personalized LLM Agents
Status Peer-reviewed, 2026
Scope Offline benchmark tasks with Wikipedia and memory retrieval; not real-world automated actionsAnthropic · How we built our multi-agent research system · 13 June 2025
90.2% higher performance on Anthropic’s internal research evaluation: a Claude Opus 4 lead agent with Claude Sonnet 4 subagents, versus Claude Opus 4 working alone
Status Company-reported engineering evaluation, not peer reviewed
Scope Not accuracy or time saved; no sample size or uncertainty published; the multi-agent system uses more tokensYang, Zyskowski, Yonack & Ma · arXiv working paper · June 2026
Perplexity researchers, with a Harvard Business School–affiliated co-author
87% less estimated task time: 269 minutes with search and manual execution → 36 minutes with an agent and human oversight
Paper How AI Agents Reshape Knowledge Work: Autonomy, Efficiency, and Scope
Status Working paper (not peer reviewed), 2026
Sample 10,000 matched task pairs
Method Estimated, not timed: tool-based counterfactual estimates; the 36 minutes include an assumed 10 minutes of human oversight per task
Summary Harvard Business School AI Institute articleAdank & Wang · Journal of the Acoustical Society of America · 2026
UCL and University of Roehampton
Clearer words in background noise: listeners identified 67.5% of words in cloned voices, versus 54.1% in the original voices
Paper Voice clones are easier to understand in noise than their human originals: The voice cloning intelligibility benefit
Status Peer-reviewed, April 2026
Sample 80 British-English listeners aged 18–35; ten voices, cloned with one system (ElevenLabs)
Scope A 13.4 percentage-point difference in speech-shaped noise; not a hearing-loss trial
Open access UCL Discovery
Technical foundations
Google Brain, Google Research and the University of Toronto
Introduced the Transformer, a neural architecture that processes relationships in language through attention.
Authors Ashish Vaswani, Noam Shazeer, Niki Parmar et al.
Published NIPS 2017 · Peer-reviewed
PDF proceedings.neurips.ccTraining Compute-Optimal Large Language Models
DeepMind
Examines how to balance model size and training data within a fixed computing budget.
Authors Jordan Hoffmann, Sebastian Borgeaud, Arthur Mensch et al.
Published NeurIPS 2022 · Peer-reviewed (proceedings title: “An empirical analysis of compute-optimal large language model training”)
PDF proceedings.neurips.ccTraining language models to follow instructions with human feedback
OpenAI
Uses human demonstrations and ranked feedback to train language models to follow instructions.
Authors Long Ouyang, Jeffrey Wu, Xu Jiang et al.
Published NeurIPS 2022 · Peer-reviewed
PDF proceedings.neurips.ccRetrieval-Augmented Generation for Knowledge-Intensive NLP Tasks
Facebook AI Research (Meta), University College London and New York University
Combines language generation with retrieved documents as an external source of knowledge.
Authors Patrick Lewis, Ethan Perez, Aleksandra Piktus et al.
Published NeurIPS 2020 · Peer-reviewedReAct: Synergizing Reasoning and Acting in Language Models
Princeton University and Google Research
Interleaves reasoning steps with actions that gather information from tools and environments.
Authors Shunyu Yao, Jeffrey Zhao, Dian Yu et al.
Published ICLR 2023 · Peer-reviewed
PDF openreview.netScaling and evaluating sparse autoencoders
OpenAI
Develops methods for extracting and evaluating interpretable features inside language models.
Authors Leo Gao, Tom Dupré la Tour, Henk Tillman et al.
Published ICLR 2025 · Peer-reviewed
PDF proceedings.iclr.cc
Human learning
A Neural Substrate of Prediction and Reward
University of Fribourg, Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Baylor College of Medicine
Connects dopamine reward-prediction signals with computational models of learning.
Authors Wolfram Schultz, Peter Dayan & P. Read Montague
Published Science 1997 · Peer-reviewed reviewCarnegie Mellon University
Examines how chess expertise relates to recognizing and remembering meaningful patterns.
Authors William G. Chase & Herbert A. Simon
Published Cognitive Psychology 1973 · Peer-reviewedIntersubject synchronization of cortical activity during natural vision
Weizmann Institute of Science
Shows that shared film viewing can align patterns of cortical activity across viewers.
Authors Uri Hasson, Yuval Nir, Ifat Levy, Galit Fuhrmann & Rafael Malach
Published Science 2004 · Peer-reviewedExperimental Study of Inequality and Unpredictability in an Artificial Cultural Market
Columbia University and the Santa Fe Institute
Demonstrates how seeing other people’s choices can reshape cultural popularity.
Authors Matthew J. Salganik, Peter Sheridan Dodds & Duncan J. Watts
Published Science 2006 · Peer-reviewedIdentification of the Social and Cognitive Processes Underlying Human Cumulative Culture
University of St Andrews, Durham University, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, CNRS and Université de Strasbourg
Examines how teaching, imitation and cooperation relate to building on shared knowledge.
Authors L. G. Dean, R. L. Kendal, S. J. Schapiro, B. Thierry & K. N. Laland
Published Science 2012 · Peer-reviewed
Digital clones: frontier research
Memory and continual learning
- LongMemEval: Benchmarking Chat Assistants on Long-Term Interactive MemoryWu et al. · UCLA, Tencent AI Lab and UC San Diego · Peer-reviewed, ICLR 2025
- A-Mem: Agentic Memory for LLM AgentsXu et al. · Rutgers University and AIOS Foundation · Peer-reviewed, NeurIPS 2025
- From Recall to Forgetting: Benchmarking Long-Term Memory for Personalized Agents (Memora)Uddin et al. · ASU, Genies · Apr 2026 · Findings of ACL 2026 (acceptance stated in author record)
- PersonaMem-v2: Towards Personalized Intelligence via Learning Implicit User Personas and Agentic MemoryJiang et al. · Dec 2025 · Preprint
- Comparing Retrieval-Augmentation and Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning for Privacy-Preserving Personalization of LLMsSalemi & Zamani · UMass Amherst · Peer-reviewed, ICTIR 2025
- Mem0: Building Production-Ready AI Agents with Scalable Long-Term MemoryChhikara et al. · Mem0 · Apr 2025 · Preprint (vendor)
- Nested Learning: The Illusion of Deep Learning ArchitecturesBehrouz, Razaviyayn, Zhong & Mirrokni · Google Research · Peer-reviewed, NeurIPS 2025
- Learning, Fast and Slow: Towards LLMs That Adapt ContinuallyTiwari et al. · UC Berkeley, Mila, UT Austin et al. · May 2026 · Peer-reviewed workshop, ICML 2026
- Position: Modular Memory is the Key to Continual Learning AgentsDorovatas et al. · Mar 2026 · Peer-reviewed position paper, ICML 2026 (Position Track)
- Continual Learning in Large Language Models: Methods, Challenges, and OpportunitiesChen et al. · Mar 2026 · Preprint (survey)
- Sparse memory fine-tuning (arXiv 2510.15103)Meta · Preprint
- MemoryAgentBenchICLR 2026
Voice: cloning and full-duplex conversation
- PersonaPlex: Voice and Role Control for Full Duplex Conversational Speech ModelsRoy et al. · NVIDIA · 2026 · Preprint
- Qwen3-TTS Technical ReportHu et al. · Qwen team · Jan 2026 · Preprint (Apache 2.0)
- IndexTTS2: A Breakthrough in Emotionally Expressive and Duration-Controlled Auto-Regressive Zero-Shot Text-to-SpeechZhou et al. · bilibili · Peer-reviewed, AAAI 2026
- F-Actor: Controllable Conversational Behaviour in Full-Duplex ModelsZüfle, Klejch, Sanders, Niehues, Birch & Lam · KIT, Edinburgh · Jan 2026 · Peer-reviewed, Findings of ACL 2026
- Full-Duplex-Bench-v2: A Multi-Turn Evaluation Framework for Duplex Dialogue Systems with an Automated ExaminerLin et al. · Hung-yi Lee and Shinji Watanabe groups · 2026 · Peer-reviewed, ACL 2026
- Full-Duplex-Bench (v1)Lin et al. · Accepted, ASRU 2025 (per arXiv)
- SteerDuplex: Steerable Duplex Speech Dialogue ModelsTyagi et al. · Scale AI, UMD · Sep 2026 · Preprint, 2026
- Raon-Speech Technical ReportKim et al. · KRAFTON · Apr to May 2026 · Preprint (fully open)
- Moshi: a speech-text foundation model for real-time dialogueDéfossez et al. · Kyutai · Sep 2024 · Technical report (preprint), 2024
- BayLing-Duplex: Native Full-Duplex Speech Dialogue with a Single Autoregressive LLMFang, Guo & Feng · Jun 2026 · Preprint
- CosyVoice 3: Towards In-the-wild Speech Generation via Scaling-up and Post-trainingDu et al. · Alibaba Tongyi · May 2025 · Preprint
- F5-TTS: A Fairytaler that Fakes Fluent and Faithful Speech with Flow MatchingChen et al. · Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai Innovation Institute, University of Cambridge and Geely · Peer-reviewed, ACL 2025
- MaskGCT: Zero-Shot Text-to-Speech with Masked Generative Codec TransformerWang et al. · CUHK-Shenzhen (Amphion toolkit) · Sep 2024 · Peer-reviewed, ICLR 2025
- IndexTTS 2.5 Technical ReportLi et al. · Bilibili · Jan 2026 · Preprint
- Llasa: Scaling Train-Time and Inference-Time Compute for Llama-based Speech SynthesisYe et al. · HKUST et al. · Feb 2025 · Preprint
- NanoCodec: Towards High-Quality Ultra Fast Speech LLM InferenceCasanova et al. · NVIDIA · Aug 2025 · Peer-reviewed, Interspeech 2025
Face and body: avatars
- StreamAvatar: Streaming Diffusion Models for Real-Time Interactive Human AvatarsSun et al. · Tsinghua University, Renmin University of China, Tencent Hunyuan and Nanjing University · Peer-reviewed, CVPR 2026
- Avatar Forcing: Real-Time Interactive Head Avatar Generation for Natural ConversationKi, Jang et al. · KAIST, Nanyang Technological University and DeepAuto.ai · Peer-reviewed, CVPR 2026
- OmniHuman-1: Rethinking the Scaling-Up of One-Stage Conditioned Human Animation ModelsLin, Jiang et al. · ByteDance · Feb 2025 · Peer-reviewed, ICCV 2025
- INFP: Audio-Driven Interactive Head Generation in Dyadic ConversationsZhu et al. · Dec 2024 · Peer-reviewed, CVPR 2025
- InfinityHuman: Towards Long-Term Audio-Driven Human AnimationLi, Xie et al. · ByteDance, Zhejiang University · Aug 2025 · Peer-reviewed, CVPR 2026
- FastGHA: Generalized Few-Shot 3D Gaussian Head Avatars with Real-Time AnimationJi, ..., Bradley · Disney Research et al. · Jan 2026 · Peer-reviewed, ICLR 2026
- FA-LAM: Focus-Aware Large Avatar Model for One-Shot 4D Animatable Gaussian HeadHu, He et al. · HKUST, Alibaba Tongyi · Jul 2026 · Peer-reviewed, NeurIPS 2026 (accepted; conference December 2026)
- HRM2Avatar: High-Fidelity Real-Time Mobile Avatars from Monocular Phone ScansShi, Jia et al. · Alibaba, SJTU · Oct 2025 · Peer-reviewed, SIGGRAPH Asia 2025 Conference Papers (DOI 10.1145/3757377.3763894)
- Avatar V: Scaling Video-Reference Avatar Video GenerationHeyGen Research · June 2026 · Preprint
- OmniHuman-1.5: Instilling an Active Mind in Avatars via Cognitive SimulationJiang et al. · ByteDance · Aug 2025 · Preprint
- Live Avatar: Streaming Real-time Audio-Driven Avatar Generation with Infinite LengthHuang et al. · Alibaba Group, USTC, BUPT, Zhejiang University · Dec 2025 · Preprint
- AvatarForcing: One-Step Streaming Talking Avatars via Local-Future Sliding-Window DenoisingCui et al. · Kling Team, Kuaishou · Mar 2026 · Preprint
- LeapTalk: Breaking the Latency-Quality Trade-off in Talking Head GenerationZhang & Liu · SJTU · Aug 2026 · Preprint
- Hallo-Live: Real-Time Streaming Joint Audio-Video Avatar Generation with Asynchronous Dual-Stream and Human-Centric Preference DistillationLi et al. · Fudan, SII et al. · Apr 2026 · Preprint (code public)
- Seamless Interaction: Dyadic Audiovisual Motion Modeling and Large-Scale DatasetAgrawal et al. · Meta · June 2025 · Preprint (dataset and models)
- MimicTalkerWang et al. · Peer-reviewed, CVPR 2026
Persona and mind
- Database Report: Twin-2K-500: A Data Set for Building Digital Twins of over 2,000 People Based on Their Answers to over 500 QuestionsToubia, Gui, Peng et al. · Columbia University · Peer-reviewed, Marketing Science 2025 (database report)
- Individual Turing Test: A Case Study of LLM-based Simulation Using Longitudinal Personal DataGuo et al. · Rutgers, Fudan, Microsoft · Mar 2026 · Preprint
- IMPersona: Evaluating Individual Level LM ImpersonationShi et al. · Princeton · Apr 2025 · Preprint
- TwinVoice: A Multi-dimensional Benchmark Towards Digital Twins via LLM Persona SimulationDu et al. · Jul 2026 · Peer-reviewed, Findings of ACL 2026
- Catch Me If You Can? Not Yet: LLMs Still Struggle to Imitate the Implicit Writing Styles of Everyday AuthorsWang et al. · Nov 2025 · Peer-reviewed, Findings of EMNLP 2025
- ThinkPersona: Thinking with Persona Graphs for Faithful Individualized Role-PlayingCai et al. · Zhejiang University and Alibaba · Peer-reviewed, ACL 2026
Psychology: attachment, trust and disclosure
- How AI and Human Behaviors Shape Psychosocial Effects of Extended Chatbot Use: A Longitudinal Randomized Controlled StudyFang et al. · MIT Media Lab and OpenAI · Mar 2025 · Preprint
- Affective-use analysis of ChatGPT conversations (arXiv 2504.03888)OpenAI · Preprint
- A psychometric framework for evaluating and shaping personality traits in large language modelsSerapio-García, Safdari et al. · Google DeepMind, University of Cambridge and others · Peer-reviewed, Nature Machine Intelligence 2025
- AI Companions Reduce LonelinessDe Freitas, Oğuz-Uğuralp, Uğuralp & Puntoni · Peer-reviewed, Journal of Consumer Research 2026 (online 2025)
- "Can Fans Build Parasocial Relationships through Idols' Simulated Voice Messages?"Kang, Kim, Kim, Fussell & Kim · May 2025 · Peer-reviewed, CSCW 2025
- Celebrity-as-a-Service: Trust and Willingness to Use Digital Twins for Customer ServiceYuan, Kim, Seymour & Dennis · 2026 · Peer-reviewed, Journal of Management Information Systems 2026
- People are poorly equipped to detect AI-powered voice clonesBarrington, Cooper & Farid · Mar 2025 · Peer-reviewed, Scientific Reports 2025
- Frontiers: Machines vs. Humans: The Impact of Artificial Intelligence Chatbot Disclosure on Customer PurchasesLuo, Tong, Fang & Qu · Nov 2019 · Peer-reviewed, Marketing Science 2019
- Labeling Messages as AI-Generated Does Not Reduce Their Persuasive EffectsGallegos et al. · Feb 2026 · Peer-reviewed, PNAS Nexus 2026
- The transparency dilemma: How AI disclosure erodes trustSchilke & Reimann · 2025 · Peer-reviewed, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 2025
- Emotional Manipulation by AI CompanionsDe Freitas et al. · HBS · Aug 2025 · Preprint (HBS working paper)
- Large language models display human-like social desirability biases in Big Five personality surveysSalecha et al. · Dec 2024 · Peer-reviewed, PNAS Nexus 2024
- Self-Assessment Tests are Unreliable Measures of LLM PersonalityGupta, Song & Anumanchipalli · 2024 · Peer-reviewed workshop, BlackboxNLP 2024
- The Dark Side of AI Companionship: A Taxonomy of Harmful Algorithmic Behaviors in Human-AI RelationshipsZhang et al. · Apr 2025 · Peer-reviewed, CHI 2025
- AI Hyperrealism: Why AI Faces Are Perceived as More Real Than Human OnesMiller et al. · 2023 · Peer-reviewed, Psychological Science 2023
- Balancing realism and trust: AI avatars in science communicationBaake, Schmitt & Metag · Apr 2025 · Peer-reviewed, Journal of Science Communication 2025
- Griefbots, Deadbots, Postmortem Avatars: On Responsible Applications of Generative AI in the Digital Afterlife IndustryHollanek & Nowaczyk-Basińska · 2024 · Peer-reviewed, Philosophy & Technology 2024
Evaluation
- Analyzing and Improving Speaker Similarity Assessment for Speech SynthesisCarbonneau et al. · Ubisoft La Forge and Stellenbosch · Peer-reviewed, ISCA Speech Synthesis Workshop 2025
- Rethinking MUSHRAPeer-reviewed, TMLR 2025
- THEval: Evaluation Framework for Talking Head Video GenerationQuignon et al. · Inria · CVPR 2026 Findings, per the authors
Safety, consent and provenance
- ASVspoof 5: Design, Collection and Validation of Resources for Spoofing, Deepfake, and Adversarial Attack Detection Using Crowdsourced SpeechWang, Delgado, Tak et al. · Peer-reviewed, Computer Speech & Language 95, 101825 (2026)
- Proactive Detection of Voice Cloning with Localized Watermarking (AudioSeal)San Roman et al. · Meta FAIR, Inria and Kyutai · Peer-reviewed, ICML 2024
- SoK: How Robust is Audio Watermarking in Generative AI models?Wen et al. · Mar 2025 · Preprint
- Deepfake-Eval-2024: A Multi-Modal In-the-Wild Benchmark of Deepfakes Circulated in 2024Chandra et al. · Mar 2025 · Preprint
- VoxENES 2026: Benchmarking Generalization of Speech Spoofing Detectors Against LLM-Era TTS and Voice ConversionSharma & Wang · Jul 2026 · Accepted, Interspeech 2026 (per author record)
- Verifying Provenance of Digital Media: Security Analysis of C2PA and its ImplementationGolaszewski, Krawetz, Sherman, Zieglar et al. · Apr 2026 · Preprint (IACR ePrint)
- Video Seal: Open and Efficient Video WatermarkingFernandez et al. · Meta FAIR · Dec 2024 · Preprint (open code and weights)
- SynthID-Image: Image watermarking at internet scaleGowal et al. · Google · Oct 2025 · Preprint
- SafeSpeech: Robust and Universal Voice Protection Against Malicious Speech SynthesisZhang et al. · Aug 2025 · Peer-reviewed, USENIX Security 2025
- De-AntiFake: Rethinking the Protective Perturbations Against Voice Cloning AttacksFan et al. · Jul 2025 · Peer-reviewed, ICML 2025
- What constitutes a Deep Fake? The blurry line between legitimate processing and manipulation under the EU AI ActMeding & Sorge · 2025 · Peer-reviewed, ACM CSLAW 2025 (per a university bibliography record)
- Preserving What's Real: The NO FAKES Act as a Federal Right Against Unauthorized Digital ReplicasMoyer · Spring 2026 · Student-edited law review note, University of Toledo Law Review 2026 (not scientific peer review)
- PRAC3: Voice Actors in AI Data-economySharma, Zhou & Berisha · Oct 2025 · Peer-reviewed, AIES 2025
Frontier papers
- Semi-Autonomous Mathematics Discovery with Gemini: A Case Study on the Erdős ProblemsFeng et al. · Google DeepMind and collaborators · January 2026 · Preprint
- Mathematical exploration and discovery at scaleGeorgiev, Gómez-Serrano, Tao & Wagner · November 2025 · Preprint
- Recursive self-improvement of AI research agentsSrikanth et al. · Weco AI · September 2026 · Preprint
- Recursive Self-Improvement in AI: From Bounded Self-Refinement to Autonomous Research LoopsChen, Wang & Qu · July 2026 · Preprint (survey)
- DiffusionGemma Technical ReportGoogle DeepMind · July 2026 · Technical report (preprint)
- DiffuMamba: High-Throughput Diffusion LMs with Mamba BackboneSingh et al. · ICML 2026 · Peer-reviewed, ICML 2026
- Formal Verification of an Explicit Counterexample to the Jacobian ConjectureArthur Freitas Ramos, David Barros Hulak & Ruy José Guerra Barretto de Queiroz · 20 July 2026 · Archive of Formal Proofs (Isabelle/HOL); formal verification of the counterexample announced by Levent Alpöge with Claude Fable 5
Lab updates and news
- Phoenix-4Tavus · 18 February 2026 · Company-reported
- LemonSlice Character World ModelLemonSlice · 2026 · Company-reported
- GPT-Live-1 full-duplex voiceOpenAI · 8 July 2026 · Company announcement
- SeeduplexByteDance Seed · 9 April 2026 · Company-reported
- DessaBlock · 23 October 2026 · Company research preview
- Research acceleration: The view inside OpenAIOpenAI · 6 September 2026 · Company-reported
- METR task-completion time horizonsMETR · May 2026 update · Independent evaluator, not peer reviewed
- Genie 4Google DeepMind · 27 October 2026 · Company-reported research preview
- Mechanistic interpretability: 10 Breakthrough Technologies 2026MIT Technology Review · January 2026 · Journalism, not research
In the film
Figures shown in the film, by reference, with their sources.
S1
- About a billion bits a second in; about 10 bits a second out · Zheng & Meister, Neuron 2025Order-of-magnitude estimates from a review; not a measurement of any one person.
- Next-hour place: up to 93% predictable in principle · Song et al., Science 2010An upper bound for mobility in one mobile-phone dataset, not achieved forecasting accuracy.
- Life outcomes stay hard to forecast (also in S6) · Salganik et al., PNAS 2020 · 2021 correction recordFor the outcomes and data studied.
- 58% next-hour prediction; 11.5 hours backScene model, no external source: 7 of 12 fictional Fridays; a week model with an assumed 80% clone share. Not an observed result.
S2
- 8.3 billion people (also in S3 and S5) · UN DESA, World Population Prospects 2024Medium-variant projection for mid-2026, not a live count.
- 117,000 points, one per million lives born by 2022; alive in 2022: 6.8% · PRB, Kaneda & Haub, 2022Estimates that depend heavily on prehistoric assumptions.
- Morning mood peak: 84 countries, 509 million messages · Golder & Macy, Science 2011Language-based mood among about 2.4 million sampled Twitter users; the moving band is an illustration.
- City lights, population rings, sun, moon and clockIllustrative construction with approximate city weights; no external source.
S3
- Stone tools, 3.3 million years ago · Harmand et al., Nature 2015The earliest known stone tools, not proof of the first invention.
- Fire, about 1 million years ago (Wonderwerk Cave) · Berna et al., PNAS 2012Burned bone and plant ash in place; evidence of fire use, not a dated invention.
- Hand stencil, at least 67,800 years ago; earlier Sulawesi record 51,200 years · Oktaviana et al., Nature 2026 · Nature 2024Minimum ages.
- Writing at Uruk, about 3200 BCE · The Metropolitan Museum of ArtAn approximate date.
- Movable type, Gutenberg, about 1450 · Library of CongressA European milestone; movable type existed earlier in East Asia.
- Watt’s separate-condenser patent, 1769 · Patent No. 913 · Science Museum, 1765 modelA patent milestone.
- Washington–Baltimore telegraph, 24 May 1844 · Library of Congress
- Edison’s carbon-filament lamp, 1879 · National Park ServiceA demonstration, not the invention of electric light.
- Transistor, December 1947; about 13 sextillion made by 2018 · Computer History Museum · production estimateThe production total is an estimate.
- Smartphone, 2007; 54% of US adults by 2013 · Apple, 2007 · Pew Research CenterSmartphones existed before 2007.
- World population: 44.6 million (3000 BCE), 503 million (1500), 828 million (1770), 1.24 billion (1844) · Our World in Data · source periodsReconstructions (HYDE 3.3; Gapminder for 1844).
- 52% of US homes with electricity by 1925 · Our World in Data (Comin & Hobijn)Households, not adults.
- Ranked feeds, 2016 · Twitter, February 2016 · Instagram, March 2016 (archived)Platform milestones.
- ChatGPT public release, November 2022; 800 million weekly users by October 2025 · OpenAI, DevDay 2025Company-reported; one service.
- Shrinking gaps between milestonesCurated milestones, not a uniform statistical series.
S4
- 5.66 billion social media identities (October 2025); 5.24 billion in Digital 2025 (also in S3 and S5) · DataReportal, Digital 2026 · Digital 2025Identities, not unique people; methods changed between reports.
- 18 h 36 min a week in social and video feeds (2 h 21 min a day in Digital 2025) · GWI via DataReportal, 2026 · 2025Different measures; not a clean increase.
- Ranked for predicted watch time · Covington, Adams & Sargin, RecSys 2016A two-stage design; the scene’s three ranking stages are its own diagram.
- More than 70% of YouTube watch time from recommendations · YouTube on its recommendationsSelf-reported, attributed to YouTube at CES 2018; the original statement was not located.
- Rewards on a variable schedule · Ferster & Skinner, 1957Theory; its application to phones is debated.
- Social influence: 14,341 people, 48 songs · Salganik, Dodds & Watts, Science 2006An artificial music market.
- About 20% more retweets per moral-emotional word · Brady et al., PNAS 2017An association in 563,312 political tweets; 1.2 × 1.2 × 1.2 is arithmetic, not a recipe.
- Posting followed reward learning: over 1 million posts, 4,000+ people · Lindström et al., Nature Communications 2021
- An unanswered notification disrupted attention · Stothart et al., 2015One attention task.
- 67% higher odds of a share per out-group word · Rathje et al., PNAS 2021An association; odds, not probability.
- Engagement ranking amplified hostile political posts · Milli et al., PNAS Nexus 2025One platform, under the conditions studied.
- A 3-month chronological feed did not measurably change polarization · Guess et al., Science 2023
- Wellbeing: technology use explained at most 0.4% of the variation (355,358 teens); contested · Orben & Przybylski, 2019 · Allcott et al., AER 2020 · Haidt, 2024Unresolved; different kinds of evidence.
- About 50 million creators; about 4% earn over $100,000 a year · Goldman Sachs Research, 2023An industry estimate.
- 11.4 million TikTok posts; median views near 500 · Buffer, 2025An industry analysis of the accounts studied.
- Income stops where her hours stop · Baumol, 1967Theory of one-to-one services at a fixed price; not all expert income.
S5
- Loss aversion λ = 1.955 (607 estimates, 150 articles) · Brown et al., JEL 2024 · Tversky & Kahneman, 1992Combined in an illustrative model.
- Dopamine neurons signal reward prediction errors · Schultz, Dayan & Montague, Science 1997
- The golden angle, 360° ÷ φ² · Vogel, 1979Geometry for the drawing, not a model of lives.
- 80 years = 701,280 hoursComputed; 80 years is an illustrative lifespan.
- Hubs, power laws and the friendship paradox · Barabási & Albert, 1999 · Clauset et al., 2009 · Feld, 1991 · Broido & Clauset, 2019Computed on a generated network.
- Attention entropy · Shannon, 1948A 48-item model, not measured attention.
- Synchronization thresholds (also in S7) · Kuramoto, 1975 · Strogatz, 2000Idealized oscillators; the scene’s values are simulation outputs.
S6
- A model of a judge’s decisions often matches or beats the judge · Goldberg, 1970 · Grove et al., 2000 (136 studies)Clinical decision models; the scene’s decision surface is synthetic.
- Voice is mostly pattern · Shannon, 1951 · Zipf, 1949Predictability of language; not personal identity.
- Expertise as recognized chunks · Chase & Simon, 1973Chess experts.
- Consciousness: unresolved · COGITATE Consortium, 2025
S7
- Applause slows to about half speed and synchronizes · Néda et al., Nature 2000The scene’s population and coupling are simulation settings.
- One shared clock can lock people who never hear each other · Childs & Strogatz, 2008A model result for idealized oscillators.
- People watching the same film show synchronized brain activity · Hasson et al., Science 2004Correlated activity, not identical thoughts.
- A feed runs on one clock; her clone on each person’s · YouTube on personalizationThe thread count is a scene simulation.
Illustrative calculator
The finale’s calculator is an illustration with chosen inputs, not a measured result or a forecast.
- Inputs 5,000 paying subscribers; $300 per subscriber per month; one thread per subscriber; 5 conversations per subscriber per month; 10 messages per conversation (both sides); 5 minutes to answer a conversation manually; 100% of conversations handled (an illustrative input, not measured performance).
- Gross revenue 5,000 × $300 = $1,500,000 per month, before fees, costs and tax; not profit or guaranteed income.
- Threads 5,000 × 1 = 5,000.
- Conversations 5,000 × 5 = 25,000 per month.
- Messages 25,000 × 10 = 250,000 per month.
- Hours 25,000 × 5 minutes ÷ 60 = 2,083.3, shown as 2,083+: the manual-answering equivalent combined across all subscribers, not one person’s hours back.
Additional research
AI helping people work and learn
Peer-reviewed research on AI-assisted work and learning.
Brynjolfsson, Li & Raymond · Quarterly Journal of Economics · 2025
An AI assistant that learned from top agents’ conversations helped less-experienced agents most
Task Customer-support chats at one software firm
Compared with Agents before, or without, the assistant
Sample 5,172 agents
Scope The AI suggested; people decided. About 15% more issues resolved per hour on average; top agents gained little.40% less task time and 18% higher quality ratings, on average, on professional writing tasks
Task Bounded, occupation-specific writing tasks
Compared with Random assignment to ChatGPT access or not (about 80% of those given access used it, as did 10–20% of controls)
Sample 453 college-educated professionals overall; the headline estimates exclude a fixed-time incentive arm
Scope Short writing tasks, not a whole working week. Quality means ratings by blinded professional graders, not factual accuracy; time was self-reported, with activity checks.Dell’Acqua et al. · Organization Science · 2026
25.1% less time on tasks within GPT-4’s capabilities; on another task, GPT-4 access reduced accuracy
Task Realistic consulting tasks, inside and outside GPT-4’s capabilities
Compared with Random assignment to GPT-4 access (with or without a prompting overview) or no AI
Sample 385 consultants in the inside-capability comparison and 373 in the outside one; 758 at one firm in total
Scope Time was measured over the first 17 questions of a fixed-length session. On the outside task, correct answers fell by about 19 percentage points.Kestin et al. · Scientific Reports · 2025
Structured AI tutoring improved immediate physics learning compared with active-learning classes
Task Two physics lessons in one university course, tested straight after
Compared with The same lessons taught as in-class active learning (crossover design)
Sample 194 eligible students; the post-test counts (142 with AI, 174 in class) are not fully reconciled with that figure in the published text
Scope Immediate learning, not retention. AI time was logged (median 49 minutes; 70% under 60); class time was assumed to be 60 minutes, not measured.Létourneau et al. · npj Science of Learning · 2025
AI tutoring systems were generally positive against teacher-led instruction, and weaker against other digital tutors
Task K-12 school learning with intelligent tutoring systems
Compared with Teacher-led instruction, or non-intelligent digital tutors
Sample 28 studies, 4,597 learners
Scope Mostly pre-LLM systems; no meta-analysis. Not personal clones.A GPT-4 practice assistant lowered later unaided exam scores; a teacher-guided tutor showed no statistically detectable difference from control
Task High-school maths practice sessions, then exams without AI
Compared with Practice with books and course notes, randomised by class
Sample About 1,000 students in one school; the main analysis excludes honours classes
Scope “GPT Base” resembled ChatGPT; its exam scores were about 17% below control. The guided tutor’s null result does not show equivalence or absence of harm.
Memory, tools and human control
Research on personalization, tool use and human control in AI systems.
Cai et al. · The Web Conference, 2025
PUMA used remembered behaviour to improve personalized tool use in shopping tasks.
Paper Large Language Models Empowered Personalized Web Agents
Evidence Capability benchmark
Scope Simulated profiles and web functions; no owner-time study.Orion combined preference tracking, clarification and tool actions, improving its benchmark results.
Paper Orion: Steering Personalized Web Agents via Global-Micro Profiling and Adaptive Intent Tracking
Evidence Capability benchmark
Scope Simulated shopping interactions; life benefits were not measured.In a 48-person study, intermediate checks cut simulated agent-task completion time by 13.5%.
Paper When Should Users Check? Modeling Confirmation Frequency in Multi-Step Agentic AI Tasks
Evidence Controlled human study of task time
Scope Compared with checking only at the end, not doing the work manually.Peng et al. · Science Advances, 2026
Across 19 studies, survey-based digital twins showed weak agreement with the individuals they represented.
Paper Digital twins are funhouse mirrors: Five systematic distortions
Evidence Boundary: how faithfully a model represents a person
Scope Survey-response simulations; expert-service performance was not tested.
Also referenced
- Gavoille, Subtil & Nourredine · JMIR Medical Education · 2026 · Voice-clone lecture pilot in one centre: 88 students randomized; 64 in the modified intention-to-treat population; 50 with the primary outcome; superiority trial, not an equivalence result; two printed confidence intervals are inconsistent with their estimates. A limited component pilot, not validation.
- Coleman et al. · JMIR Diabetes · 2025 · Feasibility trial, 43 patients: a clinician-validated avatar tutorial for semaglutide self-injection education gave higher knowledge scores but lower trust, satisfaction and empathy than nurse education.
- Clay Ford · reanalysis of Kestin et al. public data (blog, 31 Jan 2026) · Not peer reviewed. Finds a real but smaller AI-tutor advantage (about 10 to 30% higher median scores); not reproduced by our audit.